Sweden – on track to miss all climate targets but with potential to do better

– Summary and recommendations from the Swedish 2030-secretariat

Sweden is currently on it’s way to not meet any of its national climate targets, particularly the 2030 target for the transport sector. Sweden is also well of track compared to the EU ESR target, the EU energy efficiency target and the EU renewable energy target, all for 2030. In the years 2024-2026, Sweden’s climate emissions are set to rise by around 5 million tons of CO2e per year, mainly in the transport sector, instead of the sharp reduction needed to meet the targets.

The Government’s national climate policy action plan is severely lacking in clarity on how emissions will be reduced; many relevant measures for emissions reductions have been abolished or are being phased out, new measures are more limited in scope, have a much more limited emissions reductions potential than what is being left behind, and cannot compensate for the increased emissions due to cheaper fossil fuels and a lower percentage of renewables.

The plan has positive wordings, which it does not follow through on – but which we in the following will build on to propose a way forward where climate targets are met and Sweden’s role as a frontrunner in the switch to a sustainable future is maintained.